Yara Daher, Retail Media Consultant at IAB Europe discusses key findings ahead of IAB Europe’s Guidelines to Sales Incrementality Measurement. She explores what incrementality means, how it differs from common proxies, and the best methods for measurement, inviting industry feedback ahead of the guide’s publication.
With Retail Media playing an increasingly pivotal role in advertising strategies, understanding the true return on investment (ROI) of your Retail Media campaigns is critical. This goes beyond simply tracking clicks and impressions; it requires a deeper understanding of incrementality – the additional sales generated solely because of your advertising efforts.
IAB Europe’s Guidelines to Sales Incrementality Measurement will be issued this summer. The Guide will define what incrementality means, distinguish it from commonly mistaken proxies, explore various measurement methodologies, address associated challenges, and identify tools and platforms facilitating effective incrementality measurement. In this blog, I aim to lay out some of our findings to date and current thinking around Incrementality. It is an invitation to provide your thoughts and opinions ahead of the Guide being issued for public comment.
Incrementality sales measurement answers a critical question: What additional sales are directly attributable to your advertising campaign? It isolates the campaign's true impact, disentangling it from other factors influencing sales.
While valuable standalone metrics like overall sales, customer insights, and sales insights exist within Retail Media, offering unique precision and actionability, incrementality serves a specific purpose within specific campaigns. It is one piece of the measurement funnel, not the entire solution. It is important to note that it is not always possible to deliver incrementality measurement.
Based on our research and discussions so far, the following would be considered as proxies but true Incremental Sales measurement:
The following provides an overview of the metrics and insights available in the Retail Media measurement funnel. The sections in purple are all covered in IAB Europe’s On-Site and Off-Site Measurement Standards. We continue to improve our definitions and guidelines and aim to cover the full funnel.
What is the Best Method?
The best method for measuring incrementality will depend on your specific needs, resources, and data availability. There are two classes of techniques: Randomised Control Trials and Multi Touch Modeling with 7 methods that can be used. Below is a summary of the strengths and challenges of each method based on our research so far. The Guide we plan to issue will cover the methods most suited to Retail Media campaigns.
| Method | Strengths | Challenges |
| AB testing | Precise point in time estimation. | Not all platforms allow for this level of test design, operationalising a testing plan at scale requires significant resources, generalisability of results (how broadly learnings can be applied) should only be limited to very similar conditions as the designed experiments. |
| Match-Market Testing | Precise point in time estimation. | Compared to RCTs, there is some possibility of "contamination" from outside factors. Not all platforms allow for this level of test design, operationalising a testing plan at scale requires significant resources, generalisability of results (how broadly learnings can be applied) should only be limited to very similar conditions as the designed experiments. |
| Machine Learning Counterfactual Models | Potentially high predictive accuracy and flexibility. | Data complexity, data quality, trust in method among non-experts, the need for advanced techniques and communication of insights. |
| Synthetic Control Method | Challenges include bias and quality of synthetic data, lack of real consumer characteristics not modelled and trust among non-experts. | |
| Shadow-Mode Testing | Challenges include availability of additional technical systems, reliable methods to make systems comparable, data science skills required, potentially duplicate system costs, team members with the ability to act in real time on live diagnostics. | |
| Ghost Ads | Real-time nature of the approach, ability to maximise the value of ad spend and reduce wastage. | Challenges include complexity of setup to make comparisons, potentially increased media cost and skills available to interpret results and run experiments. Very few retail media platforms allow this today so it has limited scale. |
| MMM | Comprehensive, on-going measurement inclusive of all media, all channels & advertisers. | MMM has had limited ability to provide granular measurement in a timely manner. Despite some solutions that are emerging to provide granular measurement more quickly |
What is the Right Time Consideration for the Products You are Selling?
The time frame for measuring incrementality depends on the type of product being sold; frequently purchased goods require shorter measurement windows than infrequently purchased items. IAB Europe’s goal is to provide clear guidelines in keeping with our On-site and Off-site Measurement standards.
What Tools are Available for Incrementality Measurement?
In order to gather more feedback and insights into incrementality sales measurement within Retail Media campaigns, we are asking all industry stakeholders (brands, agencies, retailers / RMNs and ad tech providers) to complete a short survey. The survey will take no more than 10 minutes and the findings will help inform the Guide we will publish later this year. Take the short survey here.
