At our Retail Media Impact Summit in Amsterdam, one of the most thought-provoking sessions tackled a critical and often debated topic in Retail and Commerce Media: incrementality measurement. As Retail media continues to mature, understanding what truly drives incremental outcomes - and how to measure them effectively - has become one of the industry’s most pressing challenges.
During this breakout session, to set the stage, we conducted a live poll among attendees, asking two key questions:
1. Is the industry the gold standard for measurement in Retail Media?
2. Incrementality is a noble goal, but constraints make it nearly impossible to achieve.
Interestingly, 60% of participants agreed with the second statement. This result highlights a shared sentiment across the ecosystem. While incrementality represents an ideal in campaign measurement, it remains complex and, in many cases, difficult to implement in practice.
As discussed during the session, incrementality implies causality, yet causality itself exists in many shades. The reality is that not all incremental measurements are created equal, and this complexity makes standardisation a challenge for the industry.
During the session, our Retail Media Consultant, Yara Daher and IAB US’ VP Commerce & Retail Media, Collin Colburn, presented a preview of the new IAB Europe and IAB U.S. Guidelines for Incrementality Measurement in Commerce Media. Officially launched today, the guidelines offer a comprehensive look at the state of incrementality measurement, providing a framework for navigating the wide range of methodologies available and the conditions under which they perform best.
The Guidelines identify four primary approaches currently used across the industry:
Each approach offers its own advantages and limitations - from precision and scalability to practicality and resource requirements. The goal of this work is to help buyers, sellers, and technology partners align on common principles and expectations when it comes to proving true incremental impact.
Download the Incrementality Guidelines from the IAB Europe website here.
We discussed the four different approaches to incrementality: experiment-based, model-based counterfactual, econometric and hybrid proxies. Although everyone agrees experiment-based marketing holds the most rigour, it is not always possible. We then went on to discuss the growing adoption of Model-Based methods, such as Synthetic Controls and Ghost Ads. These techniques are gaining traction as advertisers and retailers seek more scalable ways to assess campaign performance.
However, as several participants noted, these methods are still in their experimental phase within the European market. Questions remain about their reliability, consistency of inputs, and potential for cross-platform validation. Continued collaboration between data providers, retailers, and technology partners will be key to refining these models and driving wider adoption.
Adding a practical perspective, Stan Lajouanie, VP Brand EU & LATAM from LiveRamp, shared how LiveRamp is enabling retailers and brands to unlock more actionable insights from incrementality measurement. The company is helping push incrementality measurement into social media environments, ensuring retailers can deliver key insights through Conversions APIs (CAPIs) and develop strategies that align more closely across different media channels.
This interoperability is essential for a holistic understanding of performance - particularly as retail media expands into off-site environments and across multiple walled gardens.
As we look ahead, we will continue to explore how incrementality data can be made more accessible and actionable across the wider industry and will examine the merits of each measurement approach. The newly released guidelines provide a strong foundation for this next phase of work.
For more information on our Retail Media work and how you can get involved, visit our Retail Media Hub here, or reach out to our Industry Development & Insights Director, Marie-Clare at puffett [at] iabeurope.eu.
